Science of The Total Environment
○ Elsevier BV
Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Science of The Total Environment's content profile, based on 179 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.28% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.
LEE, S.; Miyamoto, H.; Takai, Y.; Suda, W.; Ohno, H.; Simasaki, Y.; Oshima, Y.
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The East Asian region, known for its high levels of human and fishery activities, experiences serious plastic pollution in the marine environment, especially in seawater and along coastlines. Wharf roaches (Ligia spp.) collected from the coast of western Japan frequently ingest expanded polystyrene (EPS), which is then excreted as microplastic through their feces. However, the impact of EPS exposure and ingestion on the gut microbiome of wharf roaches remains unclear. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the effects of EPS ingestion on the gut microbiota of wharf roaches by examining their gut microbiota and gene expression. The expression levels of more than 400 genes, including those associated with xenobiotic metabolism, and the abundance of gut microbial community were altered. Microbial analysis revealed that at least five archaeal types, two to four bacterial types, three to seven eukaryotic types, and three viral types were involved in a correlation network composed of strong associations. Among them, Haloquadratum, Halalkalicoccus, and Methanospirillum (archaea); Volvox (eukaryote); and Varicellovirus and T4-like viruses showed significantly increased abundance. Furthermore, covariance structure analysis indicated that the viruses and methanogens played key causal roles as characteristic factors related to EPS administration. In conclusion, EPS disrupts the intestinal environment of wharf roaches and serves as a potential material for viral activation and methane production. Building on our previous field study that identified wharf roaches as potential indicators of coastal EPS pollution, this study provides novel insights into the ecological impacts of EPS ingestion and consequences of plastic pollution.
Ahmed, W.; Gebrewold, M.; Verhagen, R.; Koh, M.; Gazeley, J.; Levy, A.; Simpson, S.; Nolan, M.
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Wastewater surveillance (WWS) is established as a vital tool for monitoring polio and SARS-CoV-2 with potential to improve surveillance for many other infectious diseases. This study evaluated the feasibility of detecting measles virus (MeV) RNA in wastewater as part of a national WS preparedness trial in Brisbane, Australia, from March to June 2025. Composite and passive sampling methods were employed in parallel at three wastewater treatment plants serving populations between 230,000 and 584,000. Nucleic acids were extracted and analyzed using RT-qPCR targeting MeV N and M genes to distinguish wild-type and vaccine strains. MeV RNA were detected in both 24-hour composite and passive samples on May 26 to 27, 2025 from the largest catchment of 584,000 which also included an international airport. No measles cases were reported in this city or region within 4 weeks of the WS detections. These were confirmed as vaccine-derived measles virus (MeVV) strain via specific RT-qPCR assay. Extraction recoveries varied (11.5% to 70.5%), with passive sampling showing higher efficiency. This is the first report of use of passive samples for detection of MeV. These findings are consistent with other studies reporting WWS results of both MeVV genotype A and wild type genotype B and/or D. It demonstrates the potential for sensitive MeV WWS with rapid differentiation of MeVV from wild type MeV shedding, including in airport transport hubs and with different sample types. Use of WWS could strengthen measles surveillance by enabling rapid detection of MeV RNA and supporting outbreak preparedness and response. This requires optimised methods which are specific to or differentiate wild-type MeV from MeVV. Furthermore, the successful detection of MeV using passive sampling in this study highlights its potential for deployment in diverse global contexts which may include non-sewered settings.
Sandoval Herrera, N.; Johansson Kvarnström, E.; Lovin, L.; Fick, J.; McCallum, E. S.
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The increasing discharge of treated wastewater effluent poses a growing threat to freshwater ecosystems. Although wastewater treatment plants reduce chemical pollution, they do not fully remove many biologically active compounds. Behavioural responses in aquatic organisms provide sensitive and ecologically relevant indicators of sublethal contaminant exposure, offering insight into underlying physiological disruption and potential ecological consequences. Here, we examined the behavioural and neurotoxic effects of a seven-day experimental exposure to treated wastewater effluent in the noble crayfish (Astacus astacus). We quantified four ecologically important behaviours: (1) shelter use, a key antipredator strategy, (2) food seeking, (3) the ability to detect and respond to wastewater-associated olfactory cues, and (4) locomotor activity was assessed across all behavioural contexts. Cholinesterase (ChE) activity was measured as a biomarker of neurotoxicity. Exposure to wastewater effluent significantly altered crayfish behaviour. Exposed individuals exhibited higher locomotor activity compared to controls, exposed crayfish avoided areas containing wastewater cues, spending less time near the effluent source. Similarly, ChE activity was significantly reduced in exposed crayfish, indicating neurotoxic effects. The concurrence of ChE inhibition and behavioural modification suggests that effluent-derived contaminants may interfere with neural signalling pathways underlying crayfish locomotion and habitat selection. Overall, our results demonstrate that short-term exposure to treated wastewater effluent can induce both neurochemical disruption and ecologically relevant behavioural changes in A. astacus. Such alterations may increase vulnerability to predation and influence population dynamics in effluent-receiving waters, highlighting the importance of integrating behavioural endpoints with mechanistic biomarkers in assessing sublethal impacts of wastewater contamination.
Leite, J. P.; Lima, E.; Pereira, D.; Cidade, H.; Correia-da-Silva, M.; Ruivo, R.; Santos, M.
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The accumulation of microorganisms and macroorganisms on aquatic surfaces poses economic and ecological challenges, particularly in maritime transport. Traditional antifouling methods, such as biocidal coatings containing toxic compounds like tributyltin (TBT) and copper, are effective but harmful to the environment. This study investigates eco-friendly antifouling alternatives, focusing on nature-inspired compounds (NIAFs) GBA 26 (GBA) and DPC345DHC (DH345), derived from polyphenols and flavonoids, respectively. The ecotoxicity of these compounds was evaluated using standardized assays with various species, including embryos of Danio rerio (zebrafish) (OECD TG 236), the algae Raphidocelis subcapitata (OECD TG 201), and the bacteria Vibrio fischeri (ISO 11348-2), along with nuclear receptor transactivation assays in Mytilus galloprovincialis (Mediterranean mussel). Gallic acid derivative GBA and 24h-transformation products showed low toxicity in zebrafish embryos, while dihydrochalcone DH345 inflicted developmental toxicity in zebrafish at 1 mg/L and above. Comparatively, tralopyril, a commercial biocide, exhibited significant toxicity at lower concentrations. Transcriptomic analysis of zebrafish embryos treated with GBA revealed selective gene modulation related to stress response, ion transport, and protein synthesis. Both, GBA and DH345, were shown to inhibit algae growth at 0.1 mg/L. Vibrio fischeri assay showed no toxic effects for any of the tested compounds. Nuclear receptor transactivation assays conducted with GBA revealed no activation of PPAR or PXR receptors. These findings suggest GBA and DH345 as potential eco-friendly antifouling agents with lower environmental risks than established antifoulants such as tralopyril. However, further research is needed to evaluate their potential long-term ecological impacts, particularly chronic toxicity across various organisms. This study advances the pursuit of sustainable antifouling solutions that prioritize environmental protection.
Akorli, J.; Boateng, J. K.; Adams, B. A.; Aboagye-Antwi, F.
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The use of field water for laboratory rearing of mosquitoes could offer a better representation of the natural aquatic environment than laboratory tap or deionised water. For logistical reasons, such water may be stored in the laboratory environment for an extended period, but its stability is poorly documented. This study evaluated the influence of laboratory storage conditions on the kinetics of physicochemical parameters of breeding water collected from a field habitat. To capture within-habitat variability, water was collected from multiple spatial points from a breeding site and transferred into plastic containers for storage under laboratory conditions. Water physicochemical parameters were measured in the field to establish baseline readings, while laboratory measurements were done at 2-3-day intervals over 2 months to evaluate temporal changes. A linear mixed-effects model was fitted to evaluate the determinants of changes in physicochemical parameters under laboratory storage. Most parameters exhibited high stability; however, water temperature increased significantly by an average of [~]1.5 (p= 0.046) relative to the field. Water pH demonstrated a long-term rise over the 2-month storage period with a transient, significant dip of 0.71 units after a week of storage (p< 0.001). Overall, LMM analyses revealed that ambient relative humidity was the strongest statistical predictor of change in all water parameters except pH (p< 0.05). Ambient temperature correlated positively with water temperature and ammonium nitrogen (NH4-N) (p<0.002), and negatively with dissolved oxygen (p< 0.002). These results indicate that stored field water is highly sensitive to the laboratory microclimate. Specifically, water temperature, pH, and NH4-N serve as candidate indicators for storage-related physicochemical drift. We recommend the rigorous standardisation of insectary humidity and temperature, and monitoring of water parameters, which are likely relevant for bioassay reproducibility.
Sun, K.; Liu, Y.; Zhao, H.
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Bullous pemphigoid (BP) is an autoimmune blistering disease with a growing incidence, and environmental factors are receiving increasing attention. Tetrabromobisphenol A (TBBPA), a widely used brominated flame retardant, is a significant environmental pollutant. However, the molecular mechanisms by which TBBPA contributes to BP pathogenesis remain unclear. This study integrated network toxicology, molecular docking, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to systematically investigate the molecular mechanisms of TBBPA-induced BP. Using network toxicology, we identified 797 potential targets of TBBPA and 446 BP-related targets. A Venn diagram analysis revealed 48 common targets. Protein-protein interaction (PPI) network and topological analyses further identified five core hub targets: TNF, CXCL8, MMP9, ICAM1, and ITGB1. Gene enrichment analysis indicated that these targets were significantly enriched in immune-inflammatory pathways, such as leukocyte migration, inflammatory responses, and the IL-17 signaling pathway, as well as in various pathogen infection and cancer-related pathways. Molecular docking revealed that TBBPA stably binds to all five core targets with binding energies [≤] -5 kcal/mol, driven primarily by hydrophobic interactions and {pi}-{pi} stacking. Subsequent MD simulations confirmed that TBBPA complexes with TNF, CXCL8, and MMP9 remained stable throughout the 100 ns simulation. The overall protein structures remained compact, and the ligands were effectively encapsulated within the binding pockets, forming stable networks of hydrogen bonds and hydrophobic interactions. In conclusion, this study, for the first time, proposes a systematic molecular framework using integrated computational biology. Our findings suggest that the environmental pollutant TBBPA may act as a potential risk factor in BP pathogenesis by targeting core proteins (TNF, CXCL8, and MMP9). These interactions potentially disrupt critical signaling pathways related to immune inflammation, cell migration, and tissue remodeling. This study offers a novel mechanistic hypothesis regarding environmental chemical exposure in autoimmune blistering diseases, although further experimental validation is required. HighlightsO_LINetwork toxicology identified 48 common targets linking Tetrabromobisphenol A(TBBPA) exposure to Bullous Pemphigoid (BP). C_LIO_LIFive core targets (TNF, CXCL8, MMP9, ICAM1, ITGB1) were screened as potential mediators. C_LIO_LITBBPA stably binds to TNF, CXCL8, and MMP9 with binding energies [≤] -5 kcal/mol. C_LIO_LIMolecular dynamics simulations confirm stable binding and structural integrity of complexes. C_LIO_LIThis study provides a mechanistic framework for TBBPA as an environmental risk factor in BP. C_LI
Hegazy, N.; Peng, K. K.; de Haan-Ward, J.; Renouf, E.; Mercier, E.; Wan, S.; Hu, X. J.; Dean, C.; Servos, M.; Edwards, E.; Ybazeta, G.; Habash, M.; Goodridge, L.; Brown, R. S.; Payne, S. J.; Kirkwood, A.; Kyle, C.; McKay, R. M.; Gilbride, K.; DeGroot, C.; Delatolla, R.
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Wastewater and environmental monitoring (WEM) was a critical public health surveillance tool for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance during the COVID-19 Pandemic. However, substantial methodological heterogeneity across laboratories continues to challenge the interpretation and thus compromise the actionability of resulting WEM measurements. This study quantifies interlaboratory concordance in SARS-CoV-2 WEM measurements using influent wastewater samples collected between September 2021 and January 2024 at a single wastewater treatment facility within the Ontario Wastewater Surveillance Initiative, analyzed independently by 12 laboratories using their routine methods. In the absence of a known true viral concentration, interlaboratory WEM measurements were evaluated against a facility-specific longitudinal benchmark derived from routine surveillance at the source facility and correlated to clinical surveillance metrics. Concordance was assessed across four WEM measurement units commonly used in practice: SARS-CoV-2 copies/mL, SARS-CoV-2 copies/copies of PMMoV, and their standardized counterpart wastewater viral activity level (WVAL) units of WVAL-standardized SARS-CoV-2 copies/mL and WVAL-standardized SARS-CoV-2 copies/copies of PMMoV. Measurements in each unit were analyzed using complementary analytical frameworks, including categorical concordance metrics, principal component analysis, and linear mixed-effects modelling. Across the study period, interlaboratory measurements consistently captured benchmark temporal dynamics, including major peaks and periods of low activity, but showed substantial variation in magnitude and public-health interpretation across laboratory methods. Concordance was strongest during epidemiological extremes and deteriorated during transitional periods, increasing the risk of misclassification with potentially implications for public health decision-making. To explore potential laboratory methodological drivers of agreement, associations between the benchmark concordance and the laboratory-specific concentration, extraction, and RT-qPCR analytical steps were assessed using Fishers exact tests, alongside extracted-mass threshold analyses. No single methodological factor showed a statistically significant association with benchmark concordance in this study; however, several parameters, including RNA template volume, total RT-qPCR reaction volume, and extracted mass of analyzed settled solids, may warrant further investigation in future studies.
Paulos, A. P.; Zulli, A.; Duong, D.; Shelden, B.; White, B. J.; North, D.; Boehm, A. B.; Wolfe, M. K.
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Respiratory infections caused by bacterial pathogens like Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Bordetella pertussis have increased since the COVID 19 pandemic, yet clinical surveillance of both suffers from underreporting and delayed diagnoses. Wastewater monitoring is a valuable public health surveillance tool that can help fill gaps in clinical data yet has rarely been applied to respiratory bacterial pathogens despite evidence of bacterial shedding via excretion types that enter wastewater. In this study, we investigated the possibility for wastewater monitoring of two bacterial respiratory diseases, tuberculosis and pertussis, using two case studies of wastewater monitoring for M. tuberculosis and B. pertussis. We retrospectively measured concentrations of these pathogens in wastewater samples collected longitudinally from communities with and without known outbreaks of these diseases. We designed and validated a novel B. pertussis specific assay for the NAD(P) gene; B. pertussis nucleic acids were detected sporadically in wastewater during an identified outbreak. We used a highly specific, established assay for M. tuberculosis nucleic acids, and found low concentrations of the marker in wastewater that were lag-correlated with clinical incidence rates 5 weeks later. Findings support the potential of wastewater monitoring for M. tuberculosis and B. pertussis to enable identification of communities with outbreaks of tuberculosis and pertussis and provide early warning for tuberculosis.
Qu, S.; Sillmann, J.; Barrett, B. W.; Graffy, P. M.; Poschlod, B.; Brunner, L.; Mansour, R.; Szombathely, M. v.; Hay-Chapman, F.; Horton, T. H.; Chan, J.; Rao, S. K.; Woods, K.; Kho, A. N.; Horton, D. E.
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As climate change intensifies, health risks from extreme heat are rising. Accurate assessment of heat vulnerability at high spatial resolution is crucial for developing effective adaptation strategies, particularly in socioeconomically heterogeneous urban settings. However, the identification of key indicators underlying heat vulnerability remains challenging. Using Chicago, Illinois (USA) as a case study, we systematically compare different variable selection strategies in community-level heat vulnerability assessments. We take the conventional unsupervised principal component analysis (PCA)-based Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) as a baseline, and compare it with supervised approaches that incorporate variable selection, including machine learning algorithms (Lasso regression, Random Forest, and XGBoost) as well as traditional statistical methods (simple linear regression and polynomial regression). Using the vulnerability indicator subsets identified by each variable selection method, we construct multiple HVIs and evaluate their performance against heat-related excess mortality. Our work indicates that supervised variable selection improves the performance of HVIs in capturing heat-related health risks. Among all methods, the Random Forest-based variable selection algorithm achieves the best overall results, highlighting the potential of machine learning to enhance heat vulnerability assessment tools. Our results demonstrate that poverty rate, lack of air conditioning, and proportion of residents aged 65 and above are robust determinants of heat vulnerability in Chicago.
Brokate, L.; Mueller, C.
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Pharmaceuticals are becoming increasingly prevalent in the environment, yet their effects on terrestrial plants, especially during early development, are poorly investigated. In this context, leafy vegetables are of particular interest because they tend to accumulate more pharmaceuticals than other crops. This study investigated the impacts of six pharmaceuticals of different classes commonly detected in soils and water on seed germination and early seedling growth of the leafy vegetables bok choy (Brassica rapa subsp. chinensis) and spinach (Spinacia oleracea) under controlled conditions. Seeds were exposed to different concentrations of the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) ibuprofen, naproxen, diclofenac, or salicylic acid, the antiepileptic drug carbamazepine, or the antibiotic ciprofloxacin, and germination rates, root and shoot lengths, biomass allocation, cotyledon development, and lateral root formation (in bok choy only) measured after seven days. While germination was unaffected, early development parameters showed species-specific responses. In bok choy, high concentrations of NSAIDs and ciprofloxacin led to an increased shoot biomass and cotyledon area but a reduced primary root growth and lateral root formation, while carbamazepine had no effect. The contrasting effects on aboveground versus belowground organs of different pharmaceuticals suggest an interference with hormonal regulation, especially auxin. Spinach showed less responses than bok choy, with root length being rather increased by some NSAIDs. These results indicate that sensitivity to pharmaceuticals begins after germination and depends on both the chemical properties of the compound and the plant species. The study highlights the value of systematic comparative testing of pharmaceuticals across plant species.
Nimalrathna, T.; Guibert, I.; Si, Z.; Yeung, K. K. L.; Chan, T. Y.; Seymour, M.
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Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) and finless porpoise (Neophocaena phocaenoides) are increasingly threatened across their native range, yet the relative influence of multiple stressors in shaping their population dynamics remains unclear. Current conservation strategies for both species are limited by incomplete data and limited assessment of affecting factors. Here, we integrated eDNA metabarcoding with Joint Species Distribution Modeling (JSDM) to assess how environmental gradients, pollution, and trophic associations interactively influence cetacean distributions in Hong Kong waters. We show that degraded water quality and intensified human activity negatively associated with cetacean occurrence, with clear species-specific responses to different stressors. S. chinensis covaried most strongly with Secchi disc depth, and presence of vessels, while N. phocaenoides was negatively associated with nitrate nitrogen and microbial pollution (sewage). The JSDM variance partitioning analysis highlighted that the occurrence of S. chinensis was primarily associated with anthropogenic disturbances (30.04%), followed by water physical properties (26.63%), whereas N. phocaenoides was more strongly associated with physical (40.9%) and anthropogenic disturbances (35.2%). By integrating eDNA and JSDM, our approach provides fine-scale diagnostics of species-specific vulnerabilities, supporting adaptive conservation strategies and guiding the realignment of protected areas to mitigate biodiversity loss in urbanized marine ecosystems. Environmental ImplicationOur study demonstrates that hazardous water pollutants, including microbial contamination, nutrient enrichment, and chemical stressors, vessel pressure, show strong, species-specific impacts on resident cetaceans in Hong Kong. By integrating eDNA metabarcoding with joint species distribution models, we provide a diagnostic framework that directly links pollutant profiles to ecological risk. These findings highlight that conventional conservation strategies overlooking pollution drivers are insufficient for marine megafauna persistence. Our approach offers an early-warning system for monitoring hazardous pollutants in coastal ecosystems and supports adaptive management strategies to mitigate biodiversity loss in urbanized seascapes.
Listmann, L.; Golebiowska, J.; Lambrecht, M.; Palash, S. A.; Rueda, D. N. P.; Grossart, H.-P.; Malzahn, A.; Schaum, E.; Aberle, N.
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Understanding how warming alters estuarine plankton communities is essential for predicting future changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We conducted a four-week indoor mesocosm experiment using natural summer plankton from the Elbe River to examine the effects of warming (+2 {degrees}C and +4 {degrees}C) on abiotic conditions and responses of the plankton community. In this study, oxygen concentrations, primary producer biomass (chlorophyll a, microphytoplankton) and microzooplankton abundances declined sharply during the first 10 days across all treatments while mesozooplankton abundances increased. This suggests a strong top-down control by mesozooplankton on lower trophic levels across all temperature treatments. Primary producers biomass and oxygen concentrations recovered after an initial decline, however to lower levels compared to the onset of the experiment while micro- and mesozooplankton remained low during the second half of the experiment. Nutrient dynamics indicated progressive remineralization, with increasing ammonium, NOx, and silicate concentrations, while phosphate concentrations remained low throughout the experiment. Complementary DNA and RNA metabarcoding revealed similar community turnover over time in all treatments and temperature effects became only pronounced at the end of the experiment. Overall, warming effects were subtle relative to the strong internal trophic dynamics likely caused by the artificial mesocosm setup. Our findings of changes in plankton community dynamics indicate that biotic interactions, changes in trophic diversity and other environmental factors, i.e. oxygen concentrations are likely the drivers of this estuarine system rather than warming alone.
Pulscher, L. A.; Charley, P. A.; Zhan, S.; Reasoner, C.; Burke, B.; Schountz, T.
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Bats are exposed to a variety of pollutants, including cadmium (Cd), that can impair immune function and potentially increase viral shedding and burden. Despite this, little is known about the impacts of heavy metals on bats. This study aimed to determine the impacts of Cd exposure on bat T and B cell immune responses in naive and coronavirus infected bats and determine the impact of Cd on viral replication in Jamaican fruit bat (JFB; Artibeus jamaicensis) cells. To determine the impact of Cd exposure on adaptive immune responses, splenocyte cultures from naive and BANAL-52 coronavirus infected JFB were treated with 0, 1, and 10 {micro}M Cd and stimulated overnight with concanavalin A. RNA was extracted, a SYBR Green qPCR was used to assess gene expression. To determine if Cd exposure increased viral replication, two JFB kidney cell clones were treated with 0, 1, 10, and 50 {micro}M of CdCl2 overnight and then infected with Cedar virus (CedV). Supernatants were collected and viral titers determined. Several transcripts were upregulated in both naive and virus infected JFB splenocytes treated with Cd. B cell transcripts were significantly upregulated in a dose-dependent manner and T cell transcripts were also increased in Cd treated splenocytes. Assessment of transcripts associated with T cell subsets suggest a predominant Th2 response in Cd treated splenocytes. Viral replication was not significantly different in Cd treated kidney clones compared to the non-treated cells. These studies provide evidence that JFB adaptive immune responses are altered when exposed to low Cd concentrations.
Ando, H.; Furuya, R.; Ito, K.
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The Imperial Palace in Tokyo serves as a significant reservoir of biodiversity within the urban landscape; however, its soil microbial communities remain uncharacterized despite decades of macro-biological surveys. This study presents the first dataset profiling the soil microbiome of the Imperial Palace Outer Gardens, utilizing both 16S rRNA amplicon and shotgun metagenomic sequencing to fill this knowledge gap. We collected bulk soil samples from four distinct sites, including pond sediments and soils beneath ginkgo and pine trees, to capture a range of environmental conditions within this conserved greenspace. Both 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing and shotgun metagenomic sequencing revealed that Pseudomonadota and Actinomycetota were the predominant phyla across all samples. Notably, sites with monoculture vegetation, such as those beneath pine trees, exhibited lower microbial diversity than other locations. Functional annotation identified core metabolic pathways and detected specific antimicrobial resistance and virulence factor genes in selected samples. These datasets provide a critical baseline for future research into urban ecosystem dynamics, soil health, and the intersection of environmental conservation and public health.
Navaratnam, A. M. D.; Bishop, T. R. P.; Tatah, L.; Williams, H.; Spadaro, J. V.; Khreis, H.
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Background Ambient air pollution is a leading global health risk and disproportionately affects populations of Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs). In 2021, WHO revised its Air Quality Guidelines (AQG), lowering recommended annual limits for Particulate Matter 2.5 (PM2.5) and Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2). We estimated the potential health and economic impacts of achieving WHO Interim Target 3 (IT3) and AQG concentrations across LMICs. Methods We conducted a health impact assessment across 136 LMICs to quantify one-year changes in all-cause and cause-specific mortality (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD], ischaemic heart disease [IHD], and stroke) and disease incidence (COPD, dementia, IHD, and stroke) under WHO IT3 and AQG counterfactual scenarios for PM2.5 and NO2. Concentration-response functions were applied at 1km x 1km resolution. Economic welfare impacts of mortality risk reductions were estimated using country-adjusted values of a statistical life (VSL, Int$ PPP-adjusted 2021). Direct medical and productivity-related costs associated with incident cases were estimated using a cost-of-illness (COI) framework. Uncertainty intervals (UI) reflect uncertainty in concentration-response functions. Results Attainment of WHO IT3 and AQG concentrations for PM2.5 was associated with an estimated 16.04% reduction (6.58million, UI: 6.10-7.07million) and 22.97% reduction (9.43million, UI: 8.75-10.11million) in annual deaths, respectively. Corresponding VSL-based estimates of deaths averted were Int$5.5 trillion (7.0% of aggregate LMIC GDP) and Int$8.4 trillion (10.6% of GDP), respectively. For NO2, IT3 and AQG scenarios were associated with estimated reductions of approximately 1.06% (approximately 435,000 deaths, UI: 388,000-483,000) and 2.79% (435,000 deaths; UI: 388,000-483,000), yielding gains of Int$0.6 trillion (0.7% of GDP) and Int$1.5 trillion (1.9% of GDP). Disease-specific mortality reductions were most prominent for IHD and stroke in Asia and Africa. Under the PM2.5 AQG scenario, an estimated 2.82million (1.67-2.97) COPD, 1.10million (0.83-1.37) dementia, 7.3million (6.41-8.19) IHD, and 2.3million (2.19-2.41) stroke cases could be delayed or averted in one year. Associated reductions in direct medical and productivity-related costs were greatest for IHD, COPD, and stroke. NO2-related morbidity reductions were smaller across all outcomes. All estimates represent one-year changes in risk relative to counterfactual exposure and may reflect delayed rather than permanently avoided events. Discussion Achieving both WHO IT3 and AQG values in LMICs could yield substantial reductions in premature mortality and disease incidence, particularly for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, alongside large, monetised welfare gains from reduced mortality risk. These findings underscore the considerable societal value of air quality improvements and support accelerated action toward meeting WHO guideline levels in regions bearing the highest pollution burden.
Young, I.; Jardine, R.; Desta, B. D.; Edge, T. A.; Saleem, F.; Pearl, D. L.; Majowicz, S. E.; Brooks, T.; Nesbitt, A.; Sanchez, J. J.; Schellhorn, H. E.; Elton, S.; Schwandt, M.; Lyng, D.; Krupa, B.; Montgomery, E.; Patel, M.; Tustin, J.
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Background: Beaches are popular summertime destinations in Canada. However, they can be affected by specific fecal pollution sources, increasing the risk of recreational water illness. Objectives: This study was conducted to determine the risks of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) among Canadian beachgoers and to evaluate the influence of different fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and other water quality measures on assessing these risks. Methods: In a prospective cohort design, beachgoers were recruited at sites across Canada from 2023 to 2025. Sociodemographic characteristics and exposures were determined through an on-site survey, with a 7-day follow-up survey to determine risks of AGI. Bayesian mixed-effects logistic regression models were fitted to evaluate the effects of an ordinal water contact variable (no contact, minimal contact, body immersion, and swallowed water) on the incident risk of AGI, with an interaction included for water quality indicators. The levels of six FIB and water quality measures were assessed: Escherichia coli, enterococci DNA, three microbial source tracking DNA markers (human HF183/BacR287, human mitochondria, seagull Gull4), and turbidity. Results: A total of 4085 participants were recruited, with 67.6% completing the follow-up survey. The overall incident risk of AGI was 2.6%. Both swallowing water and body immersion increased AGI risks compared to no water contact: median of 20 excess cases (95% Credible Interval [CrI]: 4, 64) and 5 excess cases (95% CrI: 1, 19) of AGI predicted per 1000 beachgoers, respectively. Escherichia coli and seagull DNA marker levels were associated with AGI among those who had water contact, particularly among those who reported swallowing water. Discussion: While the overall burden of AGI due to beach water contact in Canada was low, increased risks are associated with E. coli levels particularly among those who swallow water. This could be related to fecal contamination from seagulls. However, there is substantial uncertainty in the predicted effect sizes.
Di Cesare, F.; Cappa, F.; Cervo, R.; Ruiu, L.; Baracchi, D.
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The increasing use of microbial biopesticides in sustainable agriculture requires a deeper understanding of their potential impact on non-target pollinators. Although biocontrol agents are generally considered safer than synthetic pesticides, they may still cause subtle but ecologically relevant adverse effects on non-target organisms, especially when exposed to multiple stressors that are often overlooked in current risk assessment frameworks. Among these, nutritional stress, caused by habitat loss, fragmentation and reduced floral diversity, is becoming increasingly widespread. In this study, we investigated the lethal and sublethal effects of the bacterial biopesticide Bacillus velezensis (formerly B. amyloliquefaciens) strain QST713 at field-relevant concentrations on two key pollinators: Apis mellifera and Bombus terrestris. For the first time for a biopesticide, oral toxicity was assessed under environmental stress represented by diets with varying sugar concentrations (optimal and suboptimal) to identify potential synergistic effects on bee health. Sublethal effects were examined by studying learning performance and memory retention through a conditioning experiment under laboratory conditions. The results showed marked species-specific differences. While B. velezensis did not impact bee survival under realistic nutritional conditions, we observed a synergistic lethal effect in B. terrestris when biopesticide exposure was coupled with extreme nutritional stress (sugar deprivation). Similar species-specific differences emerged at the behavioral level: unlike A. mellifera, B. terrestris showed impaired visual learning and early long-term memory recall. Taken together, these results show that sublethal cognitive endpoints and multi-stressor contexts may reveal vulnerabilities not immediately evident through mortality-based assessments alone. Our findings also highlight the importance of including multiple pollinator species in risk assessment, as sensitivity to biopesticides might greatly vary among species.
Roy, A.; Alava Baldazo, A.; Hulot, F. D.; SOUDANI, K.
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Drylands are experiencing increasingly intense and frequent drought events due to climate change. Wetlands in drylands are therefore under increasing pressure as their inundation regimes are altered. In southern African savannas, wetlands are often the only sources of free water for the ecosystem. Changes in the hydroperiod may alter vegetation and water surfaces, which could be early signals of desertification in their immediate vicinity. To investigate trends in surface cover around wetlands, we applied linear multispectral unmixing to Landsat pixels located near wetlands in Hwange National Park. We assessed spatial gradients in vegetation, water, and bare soil dynamics from 1986 to 2022. The studied wetlands were also grouped by hydroperiod to test whether the response of each surface cover differed with the reliability of the water resource. Our results show a significant decrease in the water fraction of wetlands with short hydroperiods, which was significantly negatively correlated with increasing temperature. Furthermore, water fraction was significantly positively correlated with vegetation fraction. This correlation suggests that vegetation could be affected if water surfaces continue to decline. Finally, this study is the first to demonstrate a decline in water surfaces in Hwange National Park, with potential implications for wildlife conservation.
Suarez-Caballero, J. L.; Nakamura, T.
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Tropical coral reef ecosystems worldwide are being impacted by combined pressures of climate change and human activities that introduce large quantities of nutrients and sediments into coastal areas. In this context, phytoplankton represent a critical link between dissolved inorganic nutrients and coral reef food webs, yet their role in these ecosystems remains understudied. We investigated ecological responses of the summer phytoplankton community of Shiraho Reef (Ishigaki Island, Okinawa, Japan) to nutrient enrichment using field-based microcosm experiments under natural light and temperature conditions in September 2022 and 2023. Treatments included single and combined additions of nitrogen, phosphorus, and silicon. Chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentrations increased after three days under combined nutrient conditions, whereas single-nutrient additions produced limited responses, indicating a strong co-limitation by nitrogen and phosphorus in the reef. Analysis of size-fractionated Chl a revealed shifts from picophytoplankton that typically dominate tropical oligotrophic ecosystems toward larger groups supported by enhanced nutrient availability. Our results show short-term impacts of nutrient enrichment events on phytoplankton size structure and biogeochemical cycling in coral reefs, and highlight the importance of pelagic processes in coral reef carbon dynamics under nutrient-enrichment.
Mazumder, A.; Pintea, S. D.; Chen, L.; Mazumder, A.; Kopp, J. B.
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Chronic kidney disease of unknown etiology (CKDu) has emerged as an important public health challenge, particularly in agricultural communities across Southern Asia and Central America. Our research aims to explore the role of environmental factors in contributing to CKDu prevalence in these regions. Using an Extreme Gradient Boosting Machine Learning (XGBoost) model, we analyzed an environmental dataset from the CKDu endemic region of Sri Lanka. The XGBoost model achieved 85% accuracy in predicting CKDu prevalence in a total of 100 locales. Significant predictor variables included fluoride concentration in water, electrical conductivity of drinking water (EC), pH, and soil type. Fluoride, a common contaminant in drinking water, was the most influential factor, followed by EC and pH, which influence the solubility and bioavailability of nephrotoxic chemicals in water sources. The study findings highlight the urgent need for targeted water analysis programs and interventions in water quality management, agrochemical usage, and soil treatment in CKDu-endemic regions. These insights also provide a framework for future research to identify causative agents and develop strategies for reducing CKDu prevalence.